Bernstein unveils new gold price forecast for 2030

 Bernstein has trimmed its long-term gold price forecast but stayed firmly bullish on the yellow metal, saying it can keep rising even as real interest rates climb.

Analyst Bob Brackett cut the firm's 2030 gold price forecast to $5,600 an ounce from $6,100, after interest rate expectations shifted from one or two cuts at the start of the year to two or three hikes by 2027. Real rates have risen to around 2.7% from 1.7% in early March.

Despite gold's historically negative correlation with real rates, Brackett noted that gold ETF holdings have been broadly flat this year and prices held up well after the Fed's recent hike. 

He said the metal "can rise with slowly rising real rates — the path we appear to be on," echoing its resilience between 2023 and 2025.

Central bank buying remains the key structural driver, the analyst said. "We continue to believe central banks are not finished diversifying reserves away from the US dollar and other G7 currencies into gold," Brackett wrote, noting several large reserve holders, including China, Japan and Saudi Arabia, still allocate less than 10% to gold.

The analyst also flagged a slowdown in central bank buying as the main risk. He said persistently high diesel and refined product prices could stoke inflation and drive expectations for further rate hikes, while a loss of Trump's congressional majority in the midterms could reduce safe-haven demand.